Is The One and Done Model a Failed Concept?

I believe it is.

In the 11-seasons since the NBA changed its eligibility requirement so that a player couldn’t be drafted until he was at least 1-year removed from the graduation of his high school class, only two teams have won national titles using a one-and-done approach – Kentucky in 2011-12 and Duke in 2014-15.

In this year’s Final 4 just 7% of the team’s scoring came from freshmen.

7%.

And do you know how many one-and-dones (technically college freshmen expected to be 2019 N.B.A. draft picks) played critical roles for Final Four teams this season?

Zero.

And it is not just this year. Freshman stars have not dominated any recent Final Fours, either. There was just one drafted one-and-done player in the 2018 Final Four, Omari Spellman of Villanova, and he was picked 30th over all. There were two in 2017 and one in 2016, with only Zach Collins of Gonzaga being drafted in the top 20.

Why do you suppose this is? Well, there are several reasons.

Clearly a team full of players with three or four years experience can have an edge over a team of 18-year old kids in their first year of college competition. It takes way more than a few months to mesh and develop the type of chemistry to get you to that final NCAA game and to win it. Experience matters, no matter how many 5-Star recruits you have.

It could also be argued that it’s easier for 3-Star recruits to buy in and be more dedicated and less entitled, knowing they’re in it for the long haul, rather than knowing they’re staying for a few months and hightailing it for the NBA like the one-and-dones.

Finally, perhaps 3-Star players are hungrier, knowing they were passed up by the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world.

Note: The reality is that one-and-dones are basically limited to a few schools. Think about it – Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas. Sure, Michigan State will snag one occasionally and even Ohio State had a couple a few years ago with Michael Conley and Greg Oden. Still, cases like that are outliers.

Let’s take a look at Duke.

For many years, Coach K’s Duke program prided itself on team play, family, toughness and “playing the right way” – the Duke way.  For nearly four decades he’s built the most best program in America, and he did this largely by finding players who, regardless of their talent level, fit into the Duke culture.

Not anymore.

Now Coach K goes for the top rated players in America (and beyond) that he knows will only be on campus for 10-months, if that. Sure, they’ve had good records and some good tournament runs, but the truth is that after decades of Duke basketball standing for chemistry and toughness, Coach K’s recent one-and-done teams have been inconsistent and erratic.

99.9% of college coaches don’t even go after the one-and-done players because they simply know they can’t get them. Sure, there are exceptions, but as a rule this holds true. Therefore they recruit players by position as they attempt to mold a team that fits and melds together, one that fits their system and philosophy. Coach K, Coach Calipari and coaches from the few other schools I mentioned just fight each other for the best players and worry about putting the puzzle together later.

More often than not, the pieces don’t fit. Not well enough anyway.

Think about this. Duke won the 2009-10 title with Brian Zoubek as his starting center, zero NBA lottery picks, and only one first-rounder (Nolan Smith) in his starting lineup. The following year they recruited their first one-and-done, Kyrie Irving, and have chosen to go that route since.

Since that 2010-11 season the Blue Devils have won zero regular-season ACC titles and made it to the Elite Eight just twice—with the aforementioned 2014-15 group and with a 2012-13 team that started three seniors and, wait for it, is the only Duke team since 2011 to not have a one-and-done on the roster.

It seems like the one-and-done trend reached its high point in 2015, when six future freshman first-rounders turned up for the Final Four. Kentucky was there with Devin Booker, Trey Lyles and Karl-Anthony Towns, and Duke won it all with Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones.

Incidentally, Duke and Kentucky are basically the same program now. They both practice the same one-and-done model.

But honestly, can you really blame Coach K, Coach Cal, Coach Self or Coach Williams? At this point they have their pick of nearly every 5-Star recruit in the country, especially K and Cal. What are they supposed to do, turn them down? No way out of the rabbit hole at this point. In the meantime teams like Virginia, Michigan State and others like them with experienced junior and senior lineups, guys who have been playing together for years and not months, will more often than not beat them when it counts.

I got a kick out of Coach K’s quote after his Elite 8 loss to Michigan State this past season – “I thought they played older than we did. But that’s happened to us. We are young.”

Yes, coach, you are. And as long as you recruit freshmen that will only be in your program for a few months your teams will remain that way.

But as I said, barring rule changes there’s no going back now.